How Will Higher Tax Rates Affect the National Retirement Risk Index?

The National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) measures the share of American households ‘at risk’ of being unable to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living in retirement. The calculations are based on the assumption that taxes remain at current levels. But federal government spending as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase rapidly in coming decades. To help bridge the gap between revenue and spending, policymakers could decide to substantially increase the personal income tax, raise Social Security payroll taxes, and establish additional revenue sources such as a value-added tax. This brief explores how such tax increases could affect the percentage of households ‘at risk.’